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a prediction-market reflexivity engine · find the mispricing, before there are none left
$1.0K
book value
price discovery — can the market still tell you something you don't already know?100%
resolves YES / NO · your model vs the market price
model
market
0%100%
your edge: market efficiency: 0%
edge
$1
position size
0
quant bots
The desk
Reflexivity

Every contract resolves the way you priced it. Of course it does — you priced it, then you made it true. There is no number left that the market knew before you did.

CAPITAL: ∞  /  DISCOVERY: 0

You were never predicting the future. You were writing it. A future you author has no truth to be right about — and the market, agreeing with you about everything, has nothing left to tell you.